… that planes arrive on time.

I have always wondered if flights are as really on time as airlines say/think they are.

We are used to hearing airlines say that a majority are, but my experience was very different. With that in mind I decided to keep track of all the flights I did last year – all 110 of them. There maybe some debate as to when we leave and arrive, as well as what control the airlines has over those times (actually, I don’t really care if it’s the airline or the airport) but I am still the traveler and I am still on time or late.

To give as much flexibility as possible, I noted the following times on every flight I took last year:

- Official departure time
- Pushback from gate
- Take-off time
- Original time of arrival (ETA) – what it said when I booked
- Landing time
- First person off the plane
- My bag off the belt time (if I checked luggage)

During a long flight back from the UK this weekend I finally looked over my spreadsheet and here are my results. I am giving percentages but that’s pretty close to the actual numbers.

Of the 110 flights only 36% of them arrived on time.

In other words, the first person got off the plane on or earlier than the ETA only 40 times over the 110 flights. Not really surprising when you consider only 9% of the flights took off before the departure time. Some would say that was unfair because there are ATC and all sorts of weather delays to blame in this number. Maybe, but when only 35% of flights even leaving the gate or on before departure time, I am not so sure. A majority of these are from Austin where the plane if often early.

These delays mean that on average you should expect to push-back from the gate an average of 11 minutes late and you will not take off until, on average, 24 minutes after your departure time.
The good news is that you will land only 6 minutes after your ETA and could be off the plane only 14 minutes later than ETA as shown. If you have bags you should wait about 15 minutes for them (unless you are in Las Vegas – when it can take for ever).

This was better than I had expected but I think moving to Austin really helped. If you fly in and out of bigger hubs I expect it is not this good.

Only two flights were canceled and American is better (maybe Austin effect) than United.

So what did I learn from this effort?

Not much, it was something to-do for 110 flights. Also when I was really delayed (worst delay was 210 minutes) I knew if no-one else cared – at least my spreadsheet would.

There is a theory that states on a plane my spreadsheet could hear me scream.